The main buyers remain Egypt, Turkey and Iran, said Dmitry Rylko, general director of the Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies. The resilience of grain exports, despite sanctions and moves by some traders to shun Russian commodities, is pushing some market observers to raise their estimates for shipments this season.
Those shipments have spurred analysts like Strategie Grains to downgrade their outlook for wheat exports from the European Union, one of Russia’s biggest competitors. The US Department of Agriculture last week also raised its estimate for Russian wheat exports in the current season to 33 million tons, though that remains short of the 35 million tons it forecast before the war.
The ruble has strengthened to pre-war levels after Moscow imposed capital controls, forcing exporters to convert most of their overseas earnings into the Russian currency. Export taxes, which are linked to wheat prices, are at a record high of $101.40 a ton. That means Moscow generates revenue of about $3 million for every 30,000-ton shipment of wheat.
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