THE Philippine economy’s strength remains its greatest weakness this year, especially if vaccinations will not be ramped up, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office .
“[The Philippines has] a very services-oriented economy. If they are able to open up the economy more fully, that will help the service sector recover more robustly. But at the same time, because of the high dependence on the services sector, if they have to close down for any reason because of the outbreak [or a] more infectious and more severe mutation of the virus, [the economy will suffer],” Khor explained.
Despite the slightly higher forecast, Khor said, inflation will remain tame this year. This will give central banks, including the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas , room to maintain interest rates. As of January 25, WTI crude oil prices increased to $83.92 per barrel; Brent crude, $87/bbl; and Dubai crude, which is what the Philippine imports, averaged $83.29/bbl.
“Our own view is that you know, that this year, [we expect] supply to pick up again and because of the slowdown of the global economy, there will be a rebalancing of demand. And, we see oil prices correcting to some extent,” Khor said. Nevertheless, high vaccination coverage has mitigated the risk of nationwide lockdowns, as experienced during the early days of the pandemic.
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