Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan, and Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chairman, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium.THE world’s top central bankers stressed the need to keep interest rates high until inflation is contained—and wrestled with deeper economic shifts that will make their jobs harder.
A key theme emerging from the formal conference proceedings and conversations on the sidelines was difficulties adapting to forces outside the control of monetary authorities. The attendees discussed topics including productivity and innovation, bond-market structure, global supply chains and rising public debt levels.
The Fed and ECB are engaged in similar debates over whether to raise borrowing costs at policy meetings next month, even as the US economy has surprised with its resilience while Europe’s seems to be headed for a downturn. Lingering inflation in both jurisdictions and uncertainty over how quickly it will recede is the common challenge.
Powell’s and Lagarde’s colleagues, however, didn’t hesitate to weigh in on the cases for and against additional rate increases. In interviews, some—like Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Bank of Latvia Governor Martins Kazaks—argued it was better to err on the side of higher rates, which could be reversed if necessary.
Among the issues that did permeate discussions over the weekend was trade. A variety of factors have caused trade in many developed markets to move away from traditional partners such as China, to countries like Vietnam or Mexico. Some economists believe this “nearshoring” or “friendshoring” could add to inflationary pressures.
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