hat can we expect from Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.’s administration in terms of policymaking in 2023?rst is by examining how current conditions, global and national, will influence policy. The second is by reviewing actual behavior and performance of the Marcos administration in the previous year.
The IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva has a blunt summary: 2023 is going to be “tougher than the year we leave behind.” But what about the situation in Asia? The lockdowns in China , the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the global growth slowdown have led the Asian Development Bank to make a downward revision of its regional growth forecast in 2023. The Asian Development Outlook says that it has revised its previous 2023 forecast in the region from 4.9% growth to 4.6%. That is a slight downward revision. And a growth rate of 4.6% when the rest of the world is edging towards recession is a relief.
One reason can be explained by Milton Friedman’s plucking model. Plucking is a metaphor. Take a string of a guitar or a violin. The deeper and harder it is pulled or plucked down, the quicker it returns to its former state upon releasing the string.nes a situation wherein after demand plunges, the economy bounces back quickly to its pre-crisis level. This suggests that regardless of policy, the economy would revert rapidly to its former condition.
The Marcos Jr. administration is fortunate to have inherited a sound macroeconomy, thanks to a series of critical reforms undertaken by previous administrations. The high-growth momentum took off during the Noynoy Aquino administration. The momentum was disrupted by the pandemic-induced recession, but the economy has rebounded.
Perchance, President Marcos Jr. and his economic managers have been lulled into complacency. Worse, they have become overconrst acts was to loosen health protocols like dropping the mask mandate even though COVID-19 persists. It has not appointed a Health Secretary, which has made the Department of Health ineective in adopting or implementing policies.
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