No end in sight: Armed conflict in PH seen to persist

Marcos Jr., who addressed Filipinos for his second Sona last July 24, stressed that for decades, “some of our co-Filipinos have taken to arms to make their views known and felt,” but as he pointed out, “we are now at a point in our history when their armed struggle has evolved.”

But in 2017, it was Duterte himself who signed Proclamation No. 360, which declared the termination of peace negotiations with communist rebels and later declared the CPP and the NPA as terrorists. “Such an approach shuns peace negotiations as a means of resolving the armed conflict; denies the legitimacy of progressive causes, organizations and movements, most of which end up being vilified and red-tagged,” he said.

Despite these declarations, however, the CPP said the NPA currently has 110 guerrilla fronts all over the Philippines, saying that “we must continue to accumulate strength […] to bring the people’s war […] to the next higher level.” By the rebels’ own account, these problems “provide fertile ground for the recruitment of peasants and other supportive classes, such as workers and even students from the cities.

Despite the higher levels of fighting between the NPA and state forces in these regions, however, armed clashes between both sides were seen in practically all parts of the country from the start of the regime of Duterte and into Marcos Jr.’s. The trend, it stressed, saw highs in December 2021, the 53rd anniversary of the CPP, and in April 2022, right before May, the month when Marcos Jr. was elected to the presidency.

As pointed out in the report that ACLED released last month, the trend reached a high in March 2023, which saw the largest number of armed clashes between the two sides since December 2018. But as ACLED pointed out, formal peace negotiations between the government and the communist leadership, which have taken place in over 40 rounds since 1986, look unlikely to be revived under Marcos Jr.

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