. Before the ban, India had aimed to ship a record 10 million tons this year.
“The ban is shocking,” a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm said. “We were expecting curbs on exports after two to three months, but it seems like the inflation numbers changed the government’s mind.” Rising fuel, labor, transportation, and packaging costs are also boosting the price of wheat flour in India.
A spike in temperatures in mid-March means the crop could instead be around 100 million tons or even lower, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trading firm. “The rise in wheat price was rather moderate, and Indian prices are still substantially lower than global prices,” said Rajesh Paharia Jain, a New Delhi-based trader.
The FCI has so far bought a little over 19 million tons of wheat from domestic farmers, against last year’s total purchases of a record 43.34 million tons. It buys grain from local farmers to run a food welfare program for the poor.
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