REUTERS
Analysis of global inflation data and the New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index , which gauges supply distortions, showed there is a stronger correlation now between supply chain disruptions and inflation than before the pandemic, particularly in the UK, the euro zone and the United States.
“I don’t think the supply chain disruptions are fully reflected in some of the inflation forecasts and that’s probably the reason why we might see forecasts go higher in the coming months,” said Brendan McKenna, international economist at Wells Fargo. “People are slow to see these things because they don’t necessarily look far enough upstream towards the sources of production, nor do they necessarily account for the delays in transit,” said Willy Shih, professor of management practice at Harvard Business School and an expert on supply chains.
Projections so far show inflation in 29 of 39 economies surveyed with stated central bank targets will remain above mandates this year and 16 next year.
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