"The scale and duration of the pandemic, and of possibly necessary future lockdown measures, remain essentially unknown," the Commission said, adding that the downside risks to its forecast are"exceptionally high." The huge uncertainty also means that the economy could bounce back more strongly than expected.
The relief package would come on top of €540 billion in existing EU stimulus efforts, as well as countries' own aid packages, and would be welcome relief to countries including Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece, which rely more heavily on tourism and have been particularly hard hit by the fallout from coronavirus.
The new forecast provides a"powerful illustration" of the need for a deal on relief measures, Dombrovskis said. Italy, which has suffered the highest coronavirus death toll in Europe, is expected to contract 11.2% this year, the worst decline in the region. The country's GDP is not expected to return to last year's level before 2022, the Commission said. The economies of France and Spain will also shrink by over 10%.
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