The study also suggests that declines in life expectancy are likely to be even starker among minority populations, particularly Blacks and Latinos. The scientists predict a 2.10-year drop in life expectancy for Blacks, to 72.78 years, and a 3.05-year drop for Latinos, to 78.77 years, compared to 0.68 for white Americans, whose life expectancy would fall to 77.84 years.
“The COVID-19 pandemic’s disproportionate effect on the life expectancy of Black and Latino Americans likely has to do with their greater exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts, in addition to receiving poorer health care, leading to more infections and worse outcomes,” explains Theresa Andrasfay from the University of Southern California.
These estimations envisage a widening of the gap in terms of life expectancy between Blacks and whites in the U.S., rising from 3.6 years to over 5 years. The gap had actually been closing in recent years. Latinos, on the other hand, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than whites, would see this gap reduced due to COVID-19.
“The huge decline in life expectancy for Latinos is especially shocking given that Latinos have lower rates than the white and Black populations of most chronic conditions that are risk factors for COVID-19. The generally good health of Latinos prior to the pandemic, which should have protected them from COVID-19, has laid bare the risks associated with social and economic disadvantage,” analyzes Noreen Goldman of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.
“While the arrival of effective vaccines is hopeful, the U.S, is currently experiencing more daily COVID-19 deaths than at any other point in the pandemic. Because of that, and because we expect there will be long-term health and economic effects that may result in worse mortality for many years to come, we expect there will be lingering effects on life expectancy in 2021,” Andrasfay concludes.
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