Computer modeling shows social distance strategies can keep curve flat

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The three strategies are: contact with only similar people, strengthening contact within communities, and repeatedly interacting with the same people in “bubbles”

Social distancing – maintaining physical distance and reducing social interactions — has been a key component of most governments’ attempts to reduce the spread of COVID-19. It’s been shown to help slow the rate of transmission and the growth rate of infection .

But complete or near-complete lockdowns have a down side: negative social, psychological and economic consequences. The new study, published in the journal Nature Human Behavior, evaluates three more moderate contact-reduction strategies to determine how well they keep the curve flat after a lockdown.

The three strategies are: contact with only similar people ; strengthening contact within communities ; and repeatedly interacting with the same people in “bubbles” . The researchers, who ran their models based on 500 to 4,000 people, found that all three slowed the spread of COVID-19, compared both to no social distancing and to non-strategic social distancing, where individuals randomly reduced interactions. Among the three, interacting in social bubbles was the most effective.

Because most people need to interact across multiple social groups, the researchers also tested the effectiveness of combinations of two or all three of the strategies. They found that combined strategies were as effective as single strategies and that all worked better than random social distancing or no social distancing at all.

 

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