China boost for flagging world economy looms as reopening starts | Enda Curran | Bloomberg Opinion

The growth impulse will be felt through services sectors such as aviation, tourism and education as Chinese people pack their bags for international travel for the first time since the pandemic. Tourism-reliant nations in Southeast Asia will likely be among the first to note a pick up, with developed economies also benefiting from the return of Chinese visitors.

The head of the International Monetary Fund last week described China’s pivot from Covid Zero as likely the single most important factor for global growth in 2023 and will mean China is a positive contributor to average global growth by around mid-year. Barclays Plc. analysts including Jian Chang expect a surge in outbound tourism and note data from Ctrip International Ltd. that shows international travel bookings for the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday soared by 260 percent compared with a year earlier. They say developed economies such as the US, UK and Australia will be among the beneficiaries.

At the same time, a domestic recovery in China will lend itself to firmer import demand and the purchases of foreign brands. While official data due Tuesday will likely show retail sales contracted last year, S&P Global has forecast retail growth of 5.8 percent in 2023.For sure, China’s rebound isn’t expected to be linear. How the public health crisis plays out remains to be seen and it could yet leave a long shadow over consumer confidence.

Source: Education Headlines (educationheadlines.net)

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