China 2Q data show economy shrinking | Bloomberg News

The consensus forecast from economists in a Bloomberg survey is that the government will next week report gross domestic product grew about 1.5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. Yet high-frequency data for June and losses in the previous two months suggest the economy contracted over that period due to the lingering effects of lockdowns in dozens of cities.

The evidence from alternative indicators is overwhelming of an ongoing slump in the economy. Travel data shows passenger trips taken on China’s roads were mostly below last year’s levels into July, according to transport figures analyzed by TS Lombard. The number of domestic flights in the quarter was down 62 percent from the same period last year, according to data provider Variflight.

Car purchases, which make up about 10 percent of monthly retail sales, fell more than 10 percent in the quarter, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. “Beijing will never announce a second-quarter contraction, Li Keqiang made that very clear,” Leland Miller, chief executive officer at China Beige Book, which polls Chinese companies on activity levels, told Bloomberg TV. “We think that they are going to throw a number in the 2 percent range out. Its not justified by the data.”

“While consumption and property have been dragging on growth, we have seen more of a meaningful recovery on the production side,” said Jing Liu, chief economist for Greater China at HSBC Holdings Plc, who is forecasting 1 percent growth for the quarter. “This is partly on the back of prioritizing resumption of work in key manufacturing sectors even amidst the recent Covid-19 outbreak.”

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