Goldman Sachs expects the same, noting that headline inflation has eased significantly in the past few months and the BSP is now forecasting year-over-year inflation to return to the target band of 2 percent to 4 percent by the fourth quarter of this year.
“Going forward, with inflation likely to continue trending downwards, we think that the BSP will keep its policy rate unchanged for the remainder of this year,” Goldman Sachs said. Michael Ricafort, the chief economist at the Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., sees “a possible extended pause” that would keep the BSP policy rates at the 16-year high of 6.25 percent.
Robert Dan Roces, the chief economist at Security Bank Corp., also said the BSP rate would be unchanged along with the US Fed’s “hawkish hold.”“We estimate inflation to fall within the … target [range] around September or October of this year, but inflation, peso depreciation, and Fed policy action risks remain tilted to the upside,” Roces said.
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