IIF Asia economist Yuanliu Hu said in an e-mail that projections for second quarter GDP would show a steep dive of 8.1 percent year-on-year “due to bad economic data” and continued rise in COVID-19 cases. Bad economic data included a drop in consumption, weak production and trade and a declining volume of remittances.“I expect a 7-percent recession. The situation will only be better in the fourth quarter, but still negative [GDP],” Hu said.
The government had projected a 2-3.4 percent GDP contraction in 2020, but the economic team is currently reviewing this estimate as the second-quarter outturn was expected to be worse than expected at the height of the most stringent COVID-19 lockdown in the region which sent to paralysis at least 3/4 of the economy.
In an Aug. 4 note to clients, Morgan Stanley Research said that despite a resurgence of COVID-19 infections in the Philippines, India and Indonesia, Asia as a whole was en route to gradual recovery, not a double-dip. “In economies where daily COVID-19 cases have risen to new highs , that has not stopped growth momentum from recovering further in most cases,” Morgan Stanley said, even as “COVID-19 risks are still most significant in India, Indonesia and the Philippines.”
bendeveraINQ Make it an ECQ full lockdown forever.
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