Washington does not have official relations with Taiwan and follows a “one-China” policy that recognizes Beijing, not Taipei, diplomatically. But it is obliged by U.S. law to provide the island with the means to defend itself, and pressure has been mounting in Congress for more explicit support.
Some analysts believe Xi also has an interest in avoiding escalation as he seeks an unprecedented third term in office at a congress of China’s ruling Communist Party expected in the fall. When Biden last spoke to Xi in March, he warned of “consequences” if Beijing gave material support for Russia’s war, and the U.S. government believes that that red line has not been crossed in the months since.Taiwan has complained of stepped-up Chinese military manoeuvres over the past two years to try and force it to accept Beijing’s sovereignty.
“The relationship is in such a toxic state. Mutual distrust is really at an all-time high. I think people don’t realize how dangerous this particular moment is,” said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. China has given few clues to specific responses it might take if Pelosi, a long time critic of China, particularly on human rights issues, does go to Taiwan.
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