The risk of even softer outcomes kept MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan down 0.2 percent, though that follows a 5.6- percent rally last week.S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both down 0.2 percent, but that followed hefty gains last week.
Data on U.S. retail sales are expected to show a rise of 0.3 percent ex-autos, continuing the slower trend but solid enough to fit into the market’s favored soft-landing theme. “We expect Fed officials cheered the latest inflation developments, but declaring victory with sub-4 percent unemployment, and over 4 percent core inflation, would be reckless.”As a result, markets still imply around a 96- percent chance of the Fed hiking to 5.25-5.5 percent this month, but only around a 25- percent probability of yet a further rise by November.
That predicted policy easing is considerably more aggressive than what is priced in for the rest of the developed world, a major reason the U.S. dollar has turned tail.
Source: News Formal (newsformal.com)
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