On 1 January 2020, the sulfur dioxide emission standard tightens to limit the emissions to burning the equivalent of fuel with a sulfur content less than 0.5 %. This is a massive reduction from the current levels of 3.5 wt%.
Refinery investments will also be important, as refiners could undertake major projects to supply 0.5% sulfur fuel oil. To date, few have committed to major capital projects and those that have are investing around US$1 billion on projects that will take a number of years to implement. In spite of the legislation coming into force in less than 12 months, the range of potential outcomes still remains very wide, as neither potential boundary case has been fully eliminated.
The other boundary case is that a number of key governments co-operate to stall the pace of adoption. In late 2018, a group including the U.S. government proposed an “experience building” phase to reduce the potential disruption on the shipping sector and ultimately the consumer. The proposal was not passed, but if a similar proposal is passed later this year when the global economy could be stalling due to regional trade wars, there may be little or no impact on the refining sector.
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