The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are expected to press on with their planned revival of oil production when they meet next week, as prices bounce back from their August stumble.
“Uncertainties over the world economy and the growth recovery in China have largely peeled away. There’s good evidence that the bottom in oil prices was temporary and overdone, and if the recovery continues, OPEC+ would likely stick to the plan,” said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc.
The OPEC+ coalition’s careful stewardship of the oil market has kept prices high enough to support the revival of the global petroleum industry, and largely avoided the kind of spike that could threaten the world’s economic recovery, yet the group still faces pressure from all sides. To the surprise of many OPEC-watchers, the group also found itself pulled in the other direction as the White House publicly urged it to revive production more quickly in order to cool elevated petrol prices.
OPEC+ has wrong-footed observers several times this year, freezing supplies when an increase was anticipated and vice versa. But so far this meeting is on track to be a smoother affair than the previous one, allowing the 23-nation OPEC+ alliance to maintain course. In the U.S., gasoline consumption is holding up as drivers try to make the most of the summer holiday season and flying is making a comeback in India as people flock to tourist spots after months of lockdown.
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