New growth numbers stir controversy

Official figures showed that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product grew by as much as 2.55 percent in the face of struggling real sector, receding trade outcomes, unabated poverty index and spiralling inflation. The economic growth, according to the NBS, represents the highest quarterly growth in four years . It was driven by sharper- than-expected growth in non-oil GDP. It beats the consensus forecasts of 2 percent, 2.36 percent and 2.

The oil sector also expanded, albeit at a slower pace of 6.36 percent y/y against the 6.49 percent y/y in Q3-19) on lower crude production , with the NBS estimating production during the three-month period to be 2.00mb/d . He said his strong optimism was built on the most important leading indicator for real GDP growth, which is the Purchasing Managers’ Index. “Most analysts tend to ignore this in Nigeria. Without claiming any causation, if you regress GDP growth on PMI, you would obtain a strongly positive relationship.” The PMI, Adi said has been consistently above 50 for the past two years post-recession and reaching the highs of the 60s some months.

Executive Director of the African Centre for Shared Development Capacity Building, Ibadan , who is former Director-General of the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research , Prof. Olu Ajakaiye said the new growth figure “is “impressive” but has an outcome that is “very depressing.” Prof. Godwin Owon the Executive Chairman of Society for Analytical Economics and former Special Adviser to Prof. Chukwuma Soludo at the CBN described the GDP figures as a formality done by the NBS but lacking in facts and principles. He insisted that the result did not reflect the reality and lacked basis.

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