us and present administrations creating fiscal analogies that lean on both weak and compelling premises to draw conclusions on which administration earned more and ought to perform better.
But the prevarication and dishonesty in the comparison is often manifest in the deliberate refusal to weigh the claims against factors like the foreign exchange realities of the years from 2015 compared with that of past fiscal years. Also usually schemed out of the analysis is inflation which has remained on the upward curve since 2015.
Our economy is effectively tied to the apron string of the dollar. As one economist noted, when the dollar sneezes, the Naira catches cold and the citizens immediately feel the impact in the prices of goods and services. In effect therefore, the real value of the Naira is expressed in terms of its exchange power to the almighty dollar.
This comparative analysis imperatively underscores the point that not only does today’s administration earn far less than the one which it succeeds, it cannot execute a capital project in 2019 with the same amount of money it would have executed the same project before 2015 when the economy went aground and the Naira depreciated badly. It would be spending at least 40% more money to do so. And this is not to talk of inflation which now stands at a crying 11% against 4% of 2014-2015.
But can government abandon critical projects such as road constructions owing to the weakening of the Naira as the narrated case? The answer is certainly, NO. Government will have to still pay Julius Berger the dollar equivalent to construct roads whether one dollar jumps to 400 Naira or not. Government will have to find a way to industrialise the state amidst the yearly depreciation of the Naira.
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