Initial Comments about Likely Outcome of 2023 Polls – THISDAYLIVE

The landmark 2023 presidential poll will hold in about three months. Though we are almost two months into the official segment of the long campaign season introduced by the Electoral Act 2022, the campaign machines are yet to fully crank to life. The political parties and the candidates seem to be conserving their energies and resources for the last two months of the campaign window. This makes sense, as presidential campaigns cost a fortune.

Two and related is that Buhari’s main base of North West has no stake in APC’s current presidential ticket. This is the zone with the highest number of registered voters , and with more than average voters’ turnout . With seemingly no skin in the game and bearing the debilitating brunt of banditry, the North West that gave APC 46% and 39% of its total votes in the country in 2015 and 2019 respectively is not likely to be hot on APC this time around.

Though in existence barely two years before 2015 elections, APC was formed from a merger of three legacy parties and splinter groups from PDP and the All Progressives Grand Alliance, . Apart from having Buhari, Atiku Abubakar, Bola Tinubu, Musa Kwankwaso and others within its fold, APC also had 15 sitting governors, significant members of the members of the National Assembly and states’ legislature by the time it took on the PDP behemoth.

This doesn’t mean that APC is home and dry. No. But a united opposition to APC would have been a different proposition. There are suggestions this may still happen. For logistics and practical reasons, it is quite unlikely that all the strong opposition parties and factions will band together, except if the election goes to the second ballot.

Obi and Kwankwaso will take votes off both APC and PDP in key states. But both the field of play and the state of play advantage the two leading parties. Despite their respective baggage, APC and PDP are the only one with the spread, the experience, and the resources that it takes to be competitive in the huge undertaking that is the presidential election in a complex and complicated country like Nigeria. This is a structuralist reading of elections in Nigeria.

Adio, you tried in ur speculation abt PDP & APC being the front runners. Nevertheless, 1979 election & 2023 are completely different. For Instance only NTA & FRCN & few newspapers were available to aid info. Now u hv Social media & other private media. Ppl are getting better info

We uses water to wash Dirty things, it becomes clean,then when water becomes Dirty, what's solutions to makes it clean? Tinubu always avoid interviews with debate on finding solutions to clean Dirty water, only Peter Obi always shows up, let's vote for Peter Obi he has solutions

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