Similarly, the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer showed that global merchandise trade is continuing to recover in 2021 following a steep but brief pandemic-induced drop in the second quarter of last year.The latest barometer reading is broadly in line with the WTO’s current trade forecast issued on March 31, which predicted an 8 per cent pickup in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2021 following a 5.3 per cent decline the previous year.
The overall forecast for 2021 indicates an increase of about 16 per cent from the lowest point of 2020 . “Global trade has recorded a faster recovery from the recession caused by the pandemic than in the last two trade recessions,” said UNCTAD economist Alessandro Nicita, who worked on the report.He said it took four quarters after the start of the pandemic-induced recession for world trade to return to pre-recession levels. By the fifth quarter – Q1 2021 – global trade was higher than pre-crisis levels, with an increase of about 3 per cent relative to Q4 2019.
However, the large increases are due to the low base for 2020, and trade in many of the major economies was still below 2019 averages. The trend of a stronger recovery for goods relative to services is common to all major economies, the report finds. East Asian economies are also behind the recovery of trade among developing countries . When trade figures from East Asian developing economies are excluded, South-South trade remains below averages.
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