As ECOWAS’s seven days ultimatum for the reinstatement of deposed President Mohamed Bazoum in Niger expires today , there is uncertainty about the next line of action for the bloc.
However, ousted President Bazoum’s Prime Minister, Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou, said it will be near impossible for any of Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea to send troops into Niger. He said their countries are separated by jihadists, who they have fought for years and have been unable to defeat. At last Sunday’s meeting, ECOWAS asked the Chiefs of Defence Staff to meet to discuss the possibility of military intervention. The meetings were held between Wednesday and Friday last week.
Rather, non-military options are required to address the situation. The options, it advised, should focus on securing the release of President Bazoum and a transition timetable. Nigeria would be one of the most affected as it shares borders with Niger and citizens along these borders have over time built both commercial and filial relationships. A move against one could be seen as a move against the other. Also, there are tens of thousands of Nigerian refugees in Niger.
Not going forward with the planned action could also be seen as evidence of the acceptability of the new wave of coups in the region, betraying its loudly touted commitment to democracy. This could incentivise the military in other countries to topple their governments as there are no deterrents for coups.
A possible impact of constituting a transition committee is that it removes the possibility of a hostile escalation.
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