by Turkish weapons, Syrian mercenaries and a mishmash of Islamist militias who sense an opportunity to inflict defeat on the Arab coalition. They are also backed by Qatar and quietly supported by the former colonial power, Italy.
The government in Tripoli is often described as “UN recognized”, which is true, but the country’s elected House of Representatives sits in Tobruk and its President Aguila Saleh has emerged as the most important leader in the East, eclipsing Haftar.The lack of national unity has echoes in Libya’s past.
Fayez al-Sarraj, the Prime Minister in Tripoli, whose government has historic ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, was on the ropes until a dramatic rescue operation launched at the end of last year by the Turkish President, Recep Erdogan. It was preceded by a maritime treaty between Tripoli and Ankara defining the boundaries of territorial waters in the Mediterranean.On December 26, 2019, Mr Erdogan vowed to back Mr Fayez in Libya by sending him soldiers but chose not to send Turkish regulars.
Vladimir Putin is determined not to allow this to happen. Russia has elevated the Libyan conflict from a sideshow to a major strategic consideration. Mr Putin appears not so much focused on a military victory but rather wants to stop Erdogan from fostering a radical Islamist state in Libya. To achieve a political deal, Mr Putin seems ready to allow Turkey to revive its unfinished projects dating back to the Gaddafi era – about $20 billion in contracts – and to offer a compromise whereby Tripoli would get control of the western Sharara oil fields.
Despite the seeming setback at Sirte, the battle for Libya has seen the emergence of Turkey as a military power in Africa to add to the extensive diplomatic and commercial links that the country has forged on the continent over the last decade.
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