At the last count, two of the leading candidates for the 2023 presidential election have addressed the private sector on their economic development plans, under the auspices of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce, Mines, and Industries. What has come out of this engagement is that none of the candidates has an innovative and accomplished plan that can redirect the economy in the age of uncertainty and changed global economy. They are either a less coherent or less transformative economic proposal.
Rethinking the role of the Nigerian state should be the starting point of a new economics for 2023 and beyond. This rethinking has to move beyond political and economic orthodoxies and be grounded in the reality of the Nigerian situation and the changing global political economy. The fact of the matter is that no nation develops outside the contexts- intellectual and political- of its times.
So, moving Nigeria into sustainable productivity requires good analysis of the cause of its stagnation. It is bad strategy not to thoroughly understand a problem before proffering solutions. Low productivity and high inequality are the twin crises of the Nigeria’s economic collapse. These derive from, and are reinforced by, a dysfunctional and incoherent state order. That order originates from the neo-feudal and colonial character of the Nigerian state.
In the main, Ahmed Bola Tinubu proposes what can be called a ‘planned economy’. He proposes to return the price control board of the late 1960s and 1970s. He wants a bigger and active government that would get involved in economic transactions in the same manner of the federal government of the military era. His government will expand public expenditure as a demand-side based economic stimulus to create 12% GDP growth.
The success of China and the rest of the Asian economies is because of this strategic approach to economic development that focused on diagnosing the problematic and recreating the social and political determinants of economic transactions. Their leaders were grounded in the lived experiences of their societies and deliberately removed constraints that held back the people from production. This approach manifest in the transformation of rural agricultural into industrial prowess.
It is therefore no magic that in North East Asia we saw high economic growth resulting in lower inequality. In South East Asia, lower economic growth produced more inequality. In Latin America, even lower economic growth produced even higher inequality.
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