2022: A peep into the political crystal ball, By Dakuku Peterside

The year 2021 is gone. Political intrigues and manoeuvres were commonplace and soometimes deliberately stifling and exuberating. Political gladiators often played hide and seek games with critical political issues and gave undue attention to political inanities.

The long-anticipated elective Convention of the ruling party is significant, not just for the party’s future but for democracy in Nigeria. The Convention has been shifted endlessly, giving room for speculations. There is the fear that the Convention will spotlight the deep internal divisions, entrenched powerplay, and contradictions in the party and set a significant crack.

The Governorship primaries of the two major political parties in the various states will be the natural battleground for presidential candidates, godfathers and power brokers. There is little reason to believe the primaries will be transparent, and that will be the foundation of internal rancour and crisis in the two major political parties. Fringe parties stand to benefit from poorly managed internal processes of the major political parties.

The 2023 election campaigns that will commence in 2022 will allow politicians to address the issues that matter to the electorate. Although campaigns are not usually about issues but personalities, yet voters will relate with issues of economy and insecurity, the same problems that defined the 2015 and 2019 presidential campaigns. It will not be out of place to predict that the political class has learnt little or no lessons.

This year will witness two crucial gubernatorial elections – the Osun and Ekiti governorship elections. These will provide an essential indicator for where INEC and the hope of free and fair elections are headed. The outcome will significantly define the prospects for free and fair elections. Whether Nigerians will be optimistic or pessimistic about the 2023 elections will reasonably depend on how these two crucial elections play out.

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