.SethGJones: What it will take for Ukraine to win the war
Yet Putin remains committed to waging a scorched-earth campaign in Ukraine. The Russian military has devastated several Ukrainian cities with artillery barrages, guided and unguided missiles launched from aircraft, long-range cruise missiles from naval vessels, and hypersonic missiles. Putin is attempting to turn the tide of the war in Moscow’s favor, as he did in Syria in 2015 and Chechnya in 1999—despite inauspicious starts.
The Russian military ground out victories in both cases. Moscow benefited from successful interdiction efforts to curb the flow of weapons and material to rebel fighters, a cowed local population, and effective information operations that complemented a punishing military campaign. But Moscow lacks all of these conditions today in Ukraine.
The Russian military has struggled to interdict the steady stream of weapons and material flowing into the country, failed to intimidate Ukrainians, and is losing the. Putin now has much to lose in Ukraine—including his legacy—if he fails to turn the tide of the war. So much is now at stake for Putin—with his military suffering staggering casualties, his economy in shambles, and his country increasingly isolated from the West—that he is likely to continue to escalate the war.
But Moscow can lose the war if the U.S. and its Western partners are able to increase the number and type of weapons to Ukraine over a sustained period. Economic and diplomatic steps will only be effective if Ukraine can hold off the Russian military on the battlefield. The Ukrainian military’s stockpiles have repeatedly run low—and will continue to do so over the course of the war. “We didn’t have enough in the first place,” said Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K., in late March. “Running out of weaponry will be seen in the week to come.”
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