Bonds Analysis by James Picerno covering: United States 10-Year. Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com
The smaller spread extends a downside trend in recent months following a period of an extremely high market premium vs. the fair value, which is drawn from the average of three models.
Although the surge in the market’s yield premium was unusually high in 2023, it wasn’t unprecedented. The model indicates that the market yield routinely bounces around fair value, posting both premiums and discounts, as the chart below shows. “Although the modeling shows that October’s spread isn’t unprecedented, history suggests such an extreme level doesn’t last long” and that “the process of normalizing has started.”
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