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The average one-year change for several measures of money supply started rising again in February. But the increases have been incremental.
Notably, the economy continued to expand during that money-supply-drought period. The return of a growth trend – presumably one that will continue and accelerate for the near term – brings another facet of support for economic activity. The revival of money supply growth adds to the empirical support that downplays the summer fears that US recession risk is rising.
“With the benefit of hindsight, the 50 basis point cut in September was a mistake though not one of great consequence,” Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers wrote last week.
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