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Probably, although for the moment the impact is expected to be minimal, based on set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.The nowcast matches the strong rise reported for Q2. The fallout from hurricanes Milton and Helene, it appears, will be slight for the national data.
But so far it’s hard to discern any conspicuous influence for the GDP nowcasts. Quite the opposite, in fact, for the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow modelThere has been a noticeable runup in US jobless claims recently, which has been attributed in part to the impact of the hurricanes.unemployment benefits rose sharply to 260,000 for the week through Oct. 5, the highest in three years, but much of the spike reversed in the following week.
The general consensus at the moment is that while stronger headwinds may be brewing for the fourth quarter, the Q3 GDP report will probably reflect an economy that’s humming. That’s the message in yesterday’s revised IMF economic forecast:
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