Our Mets vs. Brewers predictions are siding with the home side, but the moneyline juice is a little too hefty.
After the Mets played two games in Atlanta yesterday, they had to jet to Milwaukee to kick off the NL Wild Card Series tonight. The Brewers' pitching staff is built for the playoffs, and our MLB picks like their chances at winning big in the opener.
Through 31 starts this season, the right-hander owns a 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Those aren’t the worst numbers in the league, but his biggest drawback is he allows a lot of contact and sports a .244 xBA. Peralta outranks Severino in ERA, WHIP, xBA, and strikeout rate. That isn’t the only pitching advantage in this matchup for the Crew, considering their bullpen paces New York’s in both ERA and FIP. No NL bullpen boasted a better ERA than Milwaukee, either. So if the Brewers can bridge that gap, they'll be laughing.We are also going to fade Severino in the prop market as the right-hander ranks in the 22nd percentile in whiff rate and 34th in strikeout rate.
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