Jose Quintana has been a bit lucky this season based on the advanced metrics, and our MLB betting picks will fade the Mets hurler vs. the Brewers on Saturday night.
This NL series continues on Saturday evening with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the New York Mets at American Family Field. MLB odds have this game as a pick ‘em, while the total sits at 8.5.
Those aren’t the worst numbers in the world, but his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming. Quintana owns a 4.49 xERA and .259 xBA., a team that ranks eighth in hits per game and seventh in BA. Furthermore, Quintana is 0-2 against Milwaukee over his past three head-to-head meetings with a 4.50 ERA.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is going with a bullpen day, which is good news for the home side. One of the best bullpens in baseball, the Brewers’ relief staff ranks in the Top 10 in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has failed to surpass in five of his past seven starts.boasts a .333 BA through 13 career plate appearances against Quintana and has also recorded seven hits over his past five games, so I’ll add his Over 0.5 hits to round out this SGP.
Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.
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