Comets have let us down before.
Astronomers have developed general formulas and models for measuring the brightness of comets based on the observed behaviors of literally hundreds of them for more than a century. But comets, like people, have their individual quirks.
So let me stress here that there is a lot of"potential" that Tsuchinshan–ATLAS can evolve into a bright comet. However, there is a major stumbling block in order for that to happen. The latest orbital computations show that Tsuchinshan–ATLAS has an eccentricity of 1.0002280, which means it is traveling in a parabolic orbit, coming directly out of the Oort cloud. So, it has never passed near the sun before. And that's bad news.
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