2023 A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS: a Bright Comet for the End of 2024? - by Astroguyz
The specifics for the comet are certainly interesting: the comet was discovered as a faint +19magnitude in the constellation Serpens Caput. Its current distance is 7.2 AU from the Sun, out beyond the orbit of Jupiter.On an 80,660 year retrograde orbit with a 139 degree inclination relative to the ecliptic plane, theon September 28th, 2024 at 0.39 AU from the Sun… though it will also only be 22 degrees as seen from the Earth, and lost in the Sun’s glare.
First though, several caveats are in order. Yes, the discovery circumstances for this comet shares a few characteristics with one of the great comets of the 20century: C/1995 O1 Hale-Bopp. That historic comet was discovered when it was still 7.2 AU distant as a +10.5 fuzzball, the same distance than A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS. Hale-Bopp reached perihelion 0.914 AU from the Sun on April 1, 1997, and reached a brilliant maximum of magnitude -1.8.
snuck up on Earth as a fine comet close up, while we were all anticipating Hale-Bopp as a large comet farther out.Of course, we’ve been burned by anticipated great comets of yore. Just a decade ago, we were all awaiting the apparition of … which promptly disintegrated at perihelion. If Comet A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS is large and dynamically new, we could be in for a show. If, however, it’s smaller than expected and inactive, it could be yet another under-performer.For now, it’s a wait and see situation, as more observations are made. Comets often seem to have minds of their own, and fail to read and heed online prognostications. One thing is for sure: we’re definitely ‘due’ for this generation’s next great comet.
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