Why Ireland can expect to see more extreme future heatwaves

Analysis:

But what's the story for Ireland? Extreme weather events are not new to Ireland. Historical records from Met Éireann show significant extreme weather events such as the heatwave of June 1976, which saw temperatures reach 32.5°C in Boora, Co. Offaly, and the hot spell in June 2018, which recorded 32.0°C at Shannon Airport, Co. Clare.

Extreme events will always occur, even under no climate change. Every year, there is a small chance that we will experience a strange event and Met Eireann keeps a record of these. Climatologists usually measure extreme events through 'return periods'; the number of years on average you would expect to experience an event. A one in 10 year event means you would expect to experience it once every 10 years, but it may occur slightly more or less often than this in reality.

Our research shows that the locations of extreme temperatures are not evenly spread across Ireland. Coastal areas have traditionally experienced milder climates due to the moderating influence of the Atlantic Ocean, but are now seeing significant increases in extreme temperatures. However inland areas, particularly in the Midlands, are experiencing the most substantial changes, with extreme temperature events becoming much more frequent and severe.

To develop our statistical model, we used a combination of weather station data and climate model information. This approach allowed us to address issues of missing station data while using the detailed physics captured by climate models. Our combination of these data sources means we are able to produce a comprehensive analysis of extreme temperature events.

Brainstorm Climate Change Ireland Maynooth University Science Foundation Ireland Weather SFI

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