UK elections guru: Tories ‘have had it’ but Labour struggling to sell ‘vision’ to voters

towards clawing it back,” he says. “The second reason is that they face an asymmetric contest. They have no friends in parliament. They wouldn’t be able to sustain a minority government in a hung parliament without support from the SNP or the Liberal Democrats, who won’t give it. I don’t think even the DUP would support the Conservatives, because they were double-crossed the last time. I think they [the Tories] have had it.

Prof John Curtice is unconvinced that Labour leader Keir Starmer can 'write his own brief'. File photograph: Getty Images Curtice, however, agrees there was possibly more of a parallel to be drawn with the Irish general election of 2011 when Fianna Fáil was decimated after the Republic had to enter a sovereign bailout.

Curtice also notes the enduring impact of the “Partygate” scandal around the administration of former prime minister Boris Johnson. Staff at 10 Downing Street were later found to have breached the government’s rules during the pandemic. Curtice says this would be a huge issue for voters looking to punish the Conservatives at the next election.

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