Three ways Big Tech got it wrong

Those days are over. Inflation and rising central bank rates have changed the financial calculus. When investors can earn measurable returns from bank deposits and top-rated bonds, speculative investments that promise growth lose their edge. The share prices of Google, Amazon and Facebook are down between 40 and 60 per cent year on year, and their younger emulators have done even worse.

The same is simply not true for a car, a medicine or even a new flavour of packaged meat. They have to work correctly and meet regulatory standards right off the bat. Production facilities and distribution networks cannot be conjured out of thin air, or easily amended after the fact. “The real world is just messier. Even if you have a great car, you have to build it at a factory. You have to find land, you have to get it zoned. you have to find people. It’s not something that can be A-B tested,” says David Millstone, co-chief executive of Standard Industries, a private industrial conglomerate.Standard’s effort to take on Tesla’s residential solar panel business is a case in point.

The third big mistake that Big Tech emulators have made has been to assume that first-time customers would stick around. Too many digital service and ecommerce companies believed that their rapid growth during pandemic lockdowns heralded a lasting uplift in revenues, rather than a one-time extraordinary bump that quickly subsided in the face of renewed competition. Pandemic high-flyers such as Zoom Video Communications, Delivery Hero and Peloton are among those being brought back down to earth.

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