A seminal 1913 book by American economist Wesley Clair Mitchell is widely credited with beginning the systematic empirical study of business cycles. Photograph: Alex SlobodkinThe Bureau of Economic Analysis, which produces the numbers on gross domestic product and other macroeconomic data, declared on Thursday that real US gross domestic product shrank in the second quarter of 2022.
A modern economy is a constantly changing thing, in which individual industries rise and fall all the time. At some point in the 19th century, however, it became obvious that there were periods when almost all industries were declining at the same time – recessions – and other periods during which most industries were expanding.
Since 1978, the bureau has had a standing group of experts called the Business Cycle Dating Committee, which decides – with a lag – when a recession began and ended based on multiple criteria, including employment, industrial production and so on. And the US government accepts those rulings. Also, other nations don’t have any equivalent of the bureau. So there has always been an incentive to look for simple formulas, not dependent on judgment, that can quickly determine a recession.
In fact, if we didn’t have the bureau to make the determination, there would be a good case for viewing the Sahm Rule not as a predictor but as a definition: a recession has begun when the Sahm Rule says it has. And right now the rule emphatically does not say that we’re in a recession.
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