How backstop deal was done and why Cox blew it apart

By 8pm that evening Theresa May was on an RAF BAe 146 jet bound for Strasbourg to meet Jean-Claude Juncker.

"The legal risk remains unchanged," he told an audibly deflating House of Commons the following morning. "There is no ultimate unilateral right out of this [backstop] arrangement."What on earth went wrong?It was there, during the EU-Arab summit on 24-25 Februrary, that May sensed a deal on legally binding assurances on the backstop was possible.

Things looked promising. Juncker was clear he could encourage the EU to accept legally binding additions to accommodate the "capriciousness" concept. It was not until the evening of Tuesday 5 March that Cox finally tabled formal proposals during a three-hour meeting in Brussels.Cox infuriated Barnier’s deputy Sabine Weyand by calling her "my dear" during what were described as "robust" exchanges.

To bolster the good faith argument, Cox added another new word into the lexicon: reasonableness, a Victorian legal concept that, he hoped, would allow an arbitration panel to rule in the UK’s favour in a way that could sidestep’s the involvement of the European Court of Justice . Combine those arguments and the UK should be entitled to walk away from the backstop. EU officials were in disbelief.

"The problem is," he told MPs, "that even though the arbitration system applies to the [Irish] Protocol, the question that one asks the arbitrator is at the heart of the effectiveness of any arbitration". On Friday morning the EU believed the UK was already blaming Brussels for the breakdown. Theresa May gave a speech in Grimsby effectively saying it was up to the EU to move. Brussels also wanted to dampen speculation about what they were willing to offer.

There was a second gambit. Mr Barnier also tweeted: "[The] EU commits to give UK the option to exit the Single Customs Territory unilaterally, while the other elements of the backstop must be maintained to avoid a hard border. UK will not be forced into customs union against its will."

tconnellyRTE LawSocIreland I think Tony could manage a doctorate on Brexit!

tconnellyRTE LawSocIreland Congrats Tony! 👍🏻

tconnellyRTE LawSocIreland Fully deserved. Well done Tony.

tconnellyRTE LawSocIreland Congratulations tconnellyRTE ! I love to read your Brexit analysis and share it with the London Irish relatives who are surrounded by ill informed coverage and nonsense.

More analysis than this nonsense is worth. Capricious my derrière, they have been capricious since joining and even manage to be so in their failed attempt to leave. They have some neck to talk about 'bad faith' that characterises everything they do in relation to 🇮🇪🇪🇺. Enough!🤨

Excellent summary. The capriciousness and bad faith shown by the UK government in protecting themselves from the supposed capriciousness and bad faith of the EU negotiating team is stunning.

Thank you. A fascinating analysis presented clearly....unlike the reality.

This is fascinating. I have lots of pity for EU team having to deal with a rotating cast of clowns from No 10 every week

I think I'm having a brexit/backstop/breakdown.

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Brexit: Cox, Barnier and the blame game beginsAs the high-stakes Brexit negotiations reach a crucial phase, the blame game is also well under way writes tconnellyRTE tconnellyRTE I gather someone around that table must have found the desert a tad bitter... tconnellyRTE Cor blimey! The UK negotiate a deal which they then argue breaches human rights. Do we laugh or cry tconnellyRTE Nice use of the word repaired it's a long time since I have seen it used in that context. Did you ever get ur bicycle back.....
Source: rtenews - 🏆 1. / 99 Read more »

Brexit: Blow to Theresa May’s deal as British AG Cox says legal risk remainsDowning St claimed it had won legally binding changes to backstop Narrator: except it hadn’t. But it had not. The last paragraph says it clearly. Just shows the lies. Glad you haven’t gone down that road.
Source: IrishTimes - 🏆 3. / 98 Read more »

DUP to vote against Theresa May’s Brexit dealTory hardliners set to reject agreement after Cox downplays changes agreed in Strasbourg For so many decades the Westminster 'elite' ran roughshod over the people of Ulster. Particularity in the Blair years when it was a 'concession a day to the IRA'. Now it's Ulster holding the balance of power 😊 Karma Surprising.
Source: IrishTimes - 🏆 3. / 98 Read more »

MPs have voted overwhelmingly to reject Theresa May’s Brexit dealMove followed advice from Geoffrey Cox that changes did not remove risk of UK being trapped indefinitely in backstop Parliament is stamping its foot in the face of 27 countries demanding changes after being told time & again that no changes will be made. The foot stomping will continue with the same result. Good job people, the foot stomping will persuade the EU to meet your demands, I’m sure. 🎼U gotta know when to fold, know when to hold them, know when to walk ,when the dealings done🎼 🎼Seriously Teresa May MP you have some tenacity and staying power.👏
Source: IrishTimes - 🏆 3. / 98 Read more »

The feeling in the North is one of pessimism and a growing business anxietyPerhaps Cox could have merged the legal and the political, and got a lot of people off the hook, including the DUP Curtesy of the DUP I’d say that feeling is rapidly being replaced by a feeling of sheer anger. Reminds you of Japanese kamikaze in WW2
Source: IrishTimes - 🏆 3. / 98 Read more »