Daniel Geary: Trump is bound for jail - or the White House and a constitutional crisis

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Opinion: A Trump victory in 2024 would provoke a constitutional crisis the likes of which the US has never seen

Silvio Berlusconi may be gone but Trump’s still here – the rotten populist legacy is everywhereTrump reportedly remarked to an associate while referring to a document, “Secret. This is secret information. Look, look at this.” Photograph: Department of Justice/The New York Times

But even should he manage to escape conviction in this case, more indictments are on the horizon that carry the threat of substantial prison sentences. We should learn later this summer whether Trump will be charged with interfering in the 2020 presidential election in Georgia where he infamously asked the Secretary of State to “find” enough votes to carry the state for him.

Nearly a thousand people have been charged in relation to the January 6th, 2021 insurrection that Trump incited; a couple of dozen have already been sentenced to jail time. It seems probable that these cases are leading up to a prosecution of the former president himself. The US justice department appears to be following the modus operandi it uses against organised crime, where proceedings against underlings have culminated in charges against the boss.

Joe Biden, however, must be pleased at the prospect of a rematch with Trump. The 2024 contest would play out against the background of multiple criminal proceedings against his opponent. In the general election, these would energise the Democratic base and hurt Trump’s chances with swing voters. With Trump getting all the attention, Biden’s weaknesses – his low approval ratings, mediocre abilities as a campaigner, and old age – would be neutralised.

 

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