Article 50 extension looking likely – if only to prepare for no-deal Brexit

Then on Thursday on a motion to seek an extension of the article 50 mechanism, postponing the date of Brexit from March 29th to ... well, to whenever. An extension would have to be agreed unanimously by the 27 other leaders of the EU at next week’s summit in Brussels, but, once requested by the UK, there seems little doubt that it would be granted. Nobody, outside of a small group of hardline Brexiteers in the House of Commons, wants to prompt a crash-out for which nobody is prepared.

That Mrs May would agree a deal with the EU without having secured the agreement of her own attorney general – whose advice would always prove decisive – was the cause of reactions ranging from disbelief to despair to something near an exasperated amusement. The EU was always afraid it would make its concession to Mrs May on her assurances that she could pass the deal, but she would be unable to keep her part of the deal.

It has now had that experience twice. It is very unlikely to try it a third time. That means that for the EU side, an extension – for two or three months, sources say, and no more – serves two purposes. Firstly, it is to let the British see if they can figure out what it is they want.

In the wake of Mrs May’s defeat this week, we are likely to see a huge intensification in no-deal preparations. That will inevitably include preparations to protect the single market and the customs union in Ireland – the polite term for figuring out what to do about the Border.

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