Deflation in May 2024 Influenced by Post-Eid Seasonal Patterns

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Even though deflation will occur in May 2024, there is still a risk of food inflation and an increase in manufacturing industry input costs.

Please note that this article was automatically translated using Microsoft Azure AI, Open AI, and Google Translation AI. We cannot ensure that the entire content is translated accurately. If you spot any errors or inconsistencies, contact us atRetail rice traders select rice sold in bulk at the Cipinang Rice Wholesale Market in Jakarta on Friday .

BPS also states that another group experiencing significant deflation is transportation. In May 2024, this group experienced deflation of 0.36 percent and its contribution to national inflation was 0.04 percent. Deflation in that group was caused by reductions in intercity transportation costs, including by air and railway.

Despite experiencing monthly deflation, annual inflation still haunts Indonesia. The annual inflation in May 2024, which was 2.28 percent, was dominated by the food, beverage, and tobacco expenditure group which was 6.18 percent. BPS noted that the national average price of premium and medium rice in May 2024 was Rp 13,000 per kilogram and Rp 12,071 per kg, respectively. The average price of premium and medium rice decreased 3.79% and 5.39% respectively on a monthly basis. However, on an annual basis, the average price of premium and medium rice increased by 10.45% and 8.82% respectively.

"The increase in input costs for the manufacturing industry has the potential to pose a risk of inflation in the coming months."However, I estimate that inflation will remain under control with an inflation rate of 2.9 percent this year," he said. The global inflation rate is predicted to be at 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025. This inflation rate is lower compared to that of 2023 which reached 6.8 percent.

 

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