Scientists have warned that global temperatures could rise by a whopping 3.5°C (6.3°F) by 2100, with the newly defined 'high emissions' scenario leading to 'enormous climate impacts'. The 'high-emissions scenario' aims to tackle the last question and show what might happen if the world's climate policies fail.
Scientists have laid bare Earth's worst-case climate scenario, warning that global temperatures could rise by a whopping 3.5°C (6.3°F) by 2100. In an ominous new study, the world's top climate modellers have reassessed the 'pathways' scientists use to predict the environment's future.
Scientists say that the newly defined 'high emissions' scenario could lead to 'enormous climate impacts'. Lead author Professor Detlef van Vuuren, from the University of Utrecht, says these include 'strong sea level rise, more extreme weather events, and impacts on crop yields'. Professor van Vuuren told the Daily Mail that this scenario would put the planet at risk of passing so-called 'tipping points', beyond which recovery is not possible.
This warming could even trigger 'major impacts' on key ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, even with these new models, the outcome of this worst-case scenario is not entirely certain. If the climate is more sensitive to greenhouse gases than scientists predict, Professor van Vuuren says the climate could be closer to 4°C (7.2°F) warmer.
Scientists have laid bare the planet's worst-case climate scenario (dark red), warning that temperatures could be 3.5°C (6.3°F) above the pre-industrial average by 2100. This scenario is the work of the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), an international steering committee of 20 scientific experts. The researchers worked together to update the scientific scenarios which form the basis for how supercomputers will model the future climate.
These models will also be the foundation of the next major assessment from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will set the tone for global environmental policy.
'Scenarios are used in climate science to explore possible futures in order to answer specific questions,' Professor van Vuuren explains. 'Key questions the set aims to answer are what happens under current policy, what is needed to meet our climate goals, and what could be a low-probability but high-risk outcome. ' The 'high-emissions scenario' aims to tackle that last question and show what might happen if the world's climate policies fail.
It is important to note that this would not be a 'business-as-usual' situation, and would actually require the world to weaken or even abandon climate action. That would involve a decline in the use of renewable energy and a significant expansion of the use of fossil fuels. These scenarios are used by scientists to predict what might happen to the climate based on different policies.
In the worst-case (dark red), CO2 emissions increase from today and keep getting higher into the future. This comes as scientists warn Earth's climate is more out of balance than ever before, as a shocking report shows that we have just endured the hottest 11 years on record. Climate change scenarios explained Source: Detlef P. Van Vuuren, et al. , (2026).
This could occur due to geopolitical factors or local issues, such as 'opposition to building new wind farms' or concerns about employment in fossil fuel industries. That doesn't mean that 3.5°C (6.3°F) of warming above the pre-industrial average is likely, just that it is the most warming that is plausible in the next 80 years.
The point of having these models is not just to help scientists, but to ensure that societies can build robust defences for the worst possible outcome. For example, whether building flood defences in the UK or dikes in the Netherlands, governments will need to plan for the most extreme flooding that is plausible. Professor van Vuuren adds: 'In most things in life, we make sure that we build in safety.
' The good news is that 3.5°C (6.3°F) of warming in the worst-case scenario is actually significantly cooler than scientists' previous predictions. The last time ScenarioMIP charted the planet's possible future, they predicted that 4.5°C (8.1°F) was plausible by 2100. In our current worst-case scenario, the world will still reach 4.5°C (8.1°F) of warming eventually, but this has now been pushed back to 2130.
Even with the model, there is uncertainty over the outcome of a worst-case scenario (indicated by fuzzy area). This means the climate could be closer to 4°C (7.2°F) warmer if it turns out to be more sensitive. In the last 15 years, we have been tracking a medium emission pathway.
In addition, there is some impact of the low costs of renewables compared to fossil fuels and some emerging impacts of climate policy. So, even if interest in fossil fuels would drive us back to a high emission pathway – we would come out lower in 2100
Climate Change Global Warming Worst-Case Scenario High Emissions Pathways Climate Modellers Scenario Model Intercomparison Project Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Medium Emission Pathway Low Costs Of Renewables Emerging Impacts Of Climate Policy
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Stardust Trapped in Antarctic Ice Reveals Earth's Journey Through The CosmosThe Best in Science News and Amazing Breakthroughs
Read more »
See Artemis 2's amazing views of Earth in timelapse video taken from 12,000-photo dropElizabeth Howell (she/her), Ph.D., was a staff writer in the spaceflight channel between 2022 and 2024 specializing in Canadian space news. She was contributing writer for Space.com for 10 years from 2012 to 2024.
Read more »
America’s Job Market Optimism Gap Ranked the Worst on EarthYoung Americans have become far more downbeat about finding work than older generations.
Read more »
How 'Snowball Earth' Was A Tug-Of-WarA new study by planetary scientists at Harvard offers an explanation for one of Earth’s great climate puzzles: how the Sturtian glaciation, an ancient ice age when the planet was nearly entirely frozen, could have lasted 56 million years. A large igneous province in Canada helped them figure it out.
Read more »