What expected stats tell us about Blue Jays' early season performances - Sportsnet.ca

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Through the lens of expected stats, NickAshbourne takes a look at some of the Blue Jays' early season overachievers and underachievers.

Hernandez, in particular, has been hitting the cover off the ball. His percentile numbers look like this:

You can probably expect both of these guys to come down to earth to some degree, but both also have raw talent that puts few limits on their ceilings.After a couple of rough outings in big spots, it seemed like there were plenty of people willing to bury Yamaguchi. On Wednesday, the right-hander showed that he might have something to offer after all, and with the benefit of hindsight it seems that his first outings may not be as bad as we remember.

Walks were a bigger problem, as Yamaguchi issued four in his first 1.2 innings as a Blue Jays. He undoubtedly didn’t pitch well, but he also hasn’t been hit hard, and he’s got the expected numbers to prove it. Pearson isn’t a Statcast underachiever in the traditional sense. His xBA against exactly matches his batting average allowed, and his xSLG is just a touch below the .356 hitters have slugged against him so far. What puts him in this category is the discrepancy between that 5.11 and his Expected ERA of 4.07.

 

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