What can the polls tell you? Perfect prediction is impossible, expert says, but race will be close

If there’s one consistency about the election campaign over the past six weeks, it is that the Conservatives and the Liberals have barely budged in the polls. Unlike past elections, there hasn’t even been much of a discrepancy between polls from individual pollsters like Abacus Data, Angus Reid and Nanos Research, which all show the popular vote for the Conservatives and Liberals hovering between 29 and 35 per cent, each, at best.

Related NP: I just want to start with what methods most pollsters use to come up with their predictions. So for instance, Angus Reid’s latest poll shows that the Conservatives are at 33 per cent. How did they get that figure? Dr. Ellis: It does not. A more sophisticated model is needed to project seats. Eric Grenier at CBC uses a model that includes more than just polling numbers to project a seat. It includes incumbency — because incumbents have an inherent advantage — and the history of the riding, how people have voted in the past. For example: Trudeau senior and the Liberals won three to four per cent more of the popular vote than Joe Clark and the Conservatives in 1979.

Dr. Ellis: That’s hard to say. In an election where one party is ahead by five or eight per cent, individual polls are very reliable. In a close election, you have to take a look at what the aggregate polls like Grenier’s and Fournier’s are saying about seat range. I think it is very reliable to say that the Conservatives, for instance will get between 84 and 172 seats. If you want something that predicts exactly how many seats a party will get, no model can do that.

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