Weather's unwanted guest: Nasty La Nina keeps popping up

The current double-dip La Nina set a record for strength last month and is forecast to likely be around for a rare but not quite unprecedented third straight winter. And it's not just this one. Scientists are noticing that in the past 25 years the world seems to be getting more La Ninas than it used to and that is just the opposite of what their best computer model simulations say should be happening with human-caused climate change.

What Seager and other scientists said is happening is that the eastern equatorial Atlantic is not warming as fast as the western equatorial Atlantic or even the rest of the world with climate change. And it's not the amount of warming that matters but the difference between the west and east. The more the difference, the more likely a La Nina, the less the difference, the more likely an El Nino.

"They really have a very, very strong" effect, said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia University's El Nino/La Nina forecasting. "So a third consecutive La Nina is not at all a welcome thing."The current La Nina formed in the late summer of 2020 when the Atlantic set a record for the number of named storms.

La Nina has its biggest effect in the winter and that's when it is a problem for the West because it's the rainy season that is supposed to recharge areas reservoirs. But the West is in a 22-year megadrought, about the same time period of increasing La Nina frequency. "It's much less likely that the Southwest will see at least even a partial recovery from the megadrought during La Nina," Swain said.

When there's an El Nino, there's lots of Atlantic wind shear and it's hard for hurricanes to get going. But La Nina means little wind shear in the Atlantic, making it easier for storms to intensify and do it quickly, said University of Albany hurricane researcher Kristen Corbosiero."Whatever is the cause, the increasing incidence of La Ninas may be behind the increasing hurricanes," MIT's Emanuel said.

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