The mood at the annual ‘Miami hedge fund week’ gatherings this week was as bright as the winter sunshine, with one notable dark cloud on the 2023 horizon: U.S. stocks.
But right now in the hedge fund and alternative market investor community, reluctance to get sucked in is trumping fear of missing out. And there is no shortage of reasons why - inflation, weak earnings, squeezed margins, recession, ‘higher for longer’ interest rates. Given this stretched positioning, Wall Street’s current bounce is probably being driven by an element of short covering as much as fresh capital being poured in.Some 3,500 people from across the investment and risk spectrum descended on the iConnections Global Alts 2023 conference in Miami this week - hedge funds, asset allocators, family offices, digital and private market participants, asset managers, wealth managers and alternatives specialists.
Despite massive Fed tightening and the prospect of liquidity drying up significantly this year, investors see opportunities out there. But not on Wall Street - either the market capitulates because the economy goes into reverse, or it tanks because inflation forces the Fed to keep interest rates high.
The consensus forecast for total 12-month forward earnings per share of S&P 500 companies is $225, the lowest in a year but still near July’s all-time high of $238. Forward 12-month earnings growth estimates have fallen to 3.5% from 10% a year ago, but they remain positive.
Source: News Formal (newsformal.com)
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