“We do not think the economic conditions for a sustained upturn are yet in place,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. “Growth is slowing and central banks are still raising rates.”
Investors appear to be heeding the warnings. Following a two-month rally, the S&P 500 Index has fallen in all but one of the last eight sessions and dropped 1.4 per cent on Tuesday. Equity strategists, historically the market’s biggest cheerleaders, are now predicting a down year in 2023. And the red flags are being waved in the wake of wage and services data that suggested inflationary forces still grip the economy.
The charts aren’t helping, either. Whenever the benchmark S&P 500 is lower by 15 per cent or worse in a year through November, December is usually much weaker, according to BTIG LLC’s chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky. From January to November, the benchmark index had had a 19 per cent drawdown, with the gauge giving up its ground to close back below its 200-day moving average Monday.
One of Wall Street’s biggest bears, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, backed away from a recent call that the market’s recovery could last into December to say that “we are now sellers again” as he and his colleagues expect the S&P 500 to resume declines. Layoffs are also adding to the gloom. On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley announced it will reduce its global workforce by about 2,000 ahead of a potential U.S. recession, while Bank of America Corp. said it was slowing hiring.Article content
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