Wall Street advises caution on gold prices next week, Main Street mashes the gas

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The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed market experts divided and cautious on gold’s direction heading into the final week of the first quarter, while retail traders are very much back on the bullish bandwagon. “Despite surging to a fresh all-time high on Thursday, gold bulls seem tired and weighed down by a stronger dollar as the week comes to an end,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior market analyst at FXTM.

Looking beyond the FOMC, Millman said that there may just be a momentum trade going on with gold right now. “The fact that we have continued to maintain close to all-time highs, that's going to push a lot of trend-following traders and tactical investors into going long gold or covering their shorts,” he said.

Meanwhile, 170 votes were cast in Kitco’s online polls, with the vast majority of Main Street investors anticipating further gains for gold next week. 117 retail traders, representing 69%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 25, or 15%, predicted it would be lower, while 28 respondents, or 16%, were neutral on gold’s near-term prospects.

Lusk said that as far as the greenback is concerned, it's been a ‘buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact’ event, which he found interesting. “The dollar shot up for two days in a row here, and that's kind of an odd reaction when you get, I would say, neutral to dovish commentary,” he said. “But you also have to recognize, at least in gold's case, volume was ticking up to 300,000, 400,000 contracts in the April contract.

“Listen, my gut feeling here is that seasonally, we'll have some dips and valleys into the end of the quarter, and a three-day weekend next weekend, but the wild card is going to be what the wild cards have been: the Middle East, Eastern Europe, there's always black swans circling with the banking crisis,” he said. “In April, we'll get a second round of earnings, we'll see what those are.

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, said he believes gold is due for a pullback next week.

 

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