Voter turnout in Iran’s snap election will be watched as closely as the race itself

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The most likely outcomes are either a second-round showdown between conservatives Bagher Qalibaf and Saeed Jalili, or a run-off pitting one of them against reformist Masoud Pezeshkian

A billboard with a picture of the presidential candidates on a street in Tehran, on June 17. Voter turnout – which hit a new low in 2021 when former president Ebrahim Raisi was elected – will be monitored as closely as the race itself.Iranians go the polls on Friday in a closely run presidential election that will be watched as much for turnout as for the actual result., won’t be settled on Friday.

Mr. Pezeshkian, who served as health minister under Mohammad Khatami two decades ago while the former president was loosening some of Iran’s tight restrictions, is the wild card. Many observers, however, see the inclusion of the previously little-known Mr. Pezeshkian – his candidacy was approved by the all-powerful Guardian Council – as the regime’s attempt to boost turnout by luring moderate voters.

Many Iranians felt they were disenfranchised in 2021 after the country’s 12-member Guardian Council cleared the path for Mr. Raisi’s victory by disqualifying all other serious contenders. The most recent poll, published Wednesday by the Iranian Students Polling Agency, suggested the country might be headed for exactly such a result, with Mr. Pezeshkian topping the first round with 33 per cent, followed by 29 per cent for Mr. Jalili. However, most of the 19 per cent who supported Mr. Qalibaf would be expected to endorse Mr. Jalili in a run-off., telling their supporters to back either Mr. Jalili or Mr. Qalibaf.

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